Trade Turmoil to Cut 2 Percentage Points from Global GDP Growth
Issue 190, Monday 31st March 2025
Global trade, encompassing both goods and services, represents around 30% of global GDP. Services account for approximately 25% of total trade, with goods making up the rest. Our projection indicates continued strength in the services sector, but a more pessimistic outlook for goods trade. With worsening conditions likely before any improvement, our forecast might not be grim enough, as we anticipate the possibility of emerging trade barriers between countries and economic blocs in digital services as well.
Overall, we believe the current turmoil could reduce the IMF's initial global GDP growth forecast by about two percentage points. While this may sound like an April Fool's joke, unfortunately, the numbers suggest otherwise.
Once a Promising Market, EU Fruit Exports to China Are Now Down 43% from a Decade Ago and 75% from Five Years Ago
Spain, Italy, and Poland, the EU Member States Threatened by Trump’s Tariffs on Countries Importing Crude from Venezuela
US President Donald Trump has announced the possibility of a 25% tariff on any country that imports oil or gas from Venezuela. Although it is due to come into force on 2 April, its application will not be immediate and will be subject to the decision of Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
According to EUROSTAT, the three countries combined imported €1.4 billion worth of crude from Venezuela in 2024. However, Poland’s imports are marginal. Spain accounts for 88% of these imports, while Italy accounts for 11%.
Clouds Gather Over EU Auto Industry and Its €70 Billion Exports to China and the U.S
European Commission Selects 47 Strategic Projects to Secure and Diversify Access to Raw Materials in the EU
It aims to ensure European extraction, processing and recycling of strategic raw materials meet 10%, 40% and 25% of EU's demand by 2030, respectively.
Chronicle of a Foretold Outcome
Cargo Ships Transiting the Panama Canal. Convenience Flags Dominate
CK Hutchison has temporarily delayed the sale of ports in Panama and other locations, with no contract signed with BlackRock as expected this week. When asked about the reason, a source who requested anonymity simply replied, "Isn’t it obvious?"
We doubt that mainland China's leadership will remain indifferent. With the U.S. government also holding firm, expect ripples—if not waves—around the Panama Canal. On March 28, China's top market regulator said it will carry out an antitrust review of CK Hutchison's 'possible' Panama Canal ports' deal.
China Expands Its Surplus With Every Trading Partner—So Much for Global South Solidarity
RMB’s Share as a Global Payment's Currency
By weight, Hong Kong handles 80% of the RMB exchanges, while Taiwan and Macao combined account for 1.83%. Outside Greater China—and likely due to HSBC’s operations—the UK clears 5.61%. All clearinghouses in the EU handle just a tiny 3.42%, less than Singapore.
Japan to Heavily Tax Imported Graphite Electrodes from China. U.S. Considers a 920% Tariff
Japan has decided to impose a provisional anti-dumping duty of 95.2% on China’s graphite electrode exports for four months, effective April 1st.
In a similar move, the American Active Anode Material Producers (AAAMP), a coalition of U.S. and Canadian graphite manufacturers, filed a petition late last year seeking a staggering 920% tariff on Chinese imports.
Meanwhile, EU imports of Chinese graphite electrodes for furnaces in 2024 have fallen to less than half the value they were five years ago.
At the heart of these actions is the allegation that China has been exporting graphite electrodes used in electric arc furnace steelmaking at unfairly low prices.
Revenge Spending on Luxury Ladies' Bags as Daigou and Outbound Tourism Were Halted
China's Gold Fever Is Over
Following the Addition of Bismuth to China's Export Control List, Its Price Increases Abruptly
In February 2025, China added bismuth to its export control list, stopping short of banning its sale. A quick look at the Shanghai Metals Market reveals a sharp increase in the prices of all bismuth-related products. See also next entry.
Bonus: EU Imports – List of Individual Products Where 70% or More Come from China
Over 500 individual products, which together account for 30% of EU imports by value in 2024, have a dependency on China of 70% or more. These are listed in the attached documents, presented in an easy-to-use format for you to explore.
From Cargo to Computing: Containers Transformed into AI Hubs
Containerized AI is now a viable solution for the rapid deployment of AI data centers, replacing traditional brick-and-mortar facilities. Cooled by liquid, each unit can deliver up to 1.5 MW of power. Imagine parking lots filled with stacked containers, each powering intense computing workloads
Export Growth of Chinese Marketplaces Loses Momentum
Marketplaces like TEMU, Shein, and AliExpress, which had been growing at over 50% for the last few years, saw their growth slow to 25% early 2025.
As trading partners tighten regulations, raise tariffs, and close de minimis loopholes, these platforms must rethink their direct shipping strategy—likely shifting toward general trade and establishing warehouses in key markets. In response, the Chinese government has announced subsidies to support the expansion of cross-border e-commerce platforms globally.
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Why is JPY listed twice in the “Chinese Yuan share as a global payments currency” bar chart — once at 3.68% and again at 6.89%