China’s 2025 Trade Puzzle: Shifting South While Relying on the North
Issue 177, Monday 30th December 2024
With the year 2024 wrapping up, China’s exports raise a legit question. Just 5% of export categories account for 60% of exports, and most go to advanced economies. Given current political turmoil, does China have time to build its Global South strategy while still relying on exports to the North?
In 2024, China is projected to boost its exports by $180 billion. Of this growth, around $42 billion is expected to come from advanced economies, primarily the U.S. and the EU, as exports to Japan, South Korea, and Australia have declined compared to the previous year. Exports to BRICS partners and neighboring Vietnam contribute $49 billion to this increase, while the remaining $89 billion comes from the rest of the world. Notably, in broad export terms, more than one-third of what China categorizes as the Global South actually comprises its neighbor Vietnam and three founding members of the BRICS bloc: Brazil, Russia, and India.
U.S Launches Section 301 Probe Targeting China’s Legacy Chip Policies
On December 23,the United States Trade Representative announced the initiation of an investigation regarding China’s acts, policies, and practices related to targeting of the semiconductor industry for dominance.
The investigation will initially focus on China’s manufacturing of legacy chips.
U.S. Tariffs and GDP Impact: Bad for the World, Worse for the U.S., Worst for China
Hogan, McKibbin, and Nolan examine how revoking the Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status that the U.S. grants to China would affect GDP.
China’s E-car Exports to EU Plummet in November, Drop Even Sharper to Rest of World
Exports to Brazil, long seen as China’s great hope, plunged 75% year-on-year in November.
16-Fold Growth in Three Years Reverses Course with a 16% Drop in Electric Car Exports to the EU
A decrease of about $2 billion in value in 2024 compared to 2023. Exports to the EU in November 36% down.
China Expresses Growing Angst Over EU Tariffs on Its Electric Cars
Comments of He Yongqian, a spokesperson with Chinese Commerce Ministry in response to a question regarding the progress on China-EU consultations on the price commitment distill a feeling of anxiety.
We hope that the EU side will take concrete actions as soon as possible
The harsh and confrontational tone of Chinese media in June has softened considerably. With the EU market being critical for China’s electric car industry, the once-vitriolic rhetoric has shifted to calls for cooperation. Recent statements suggest that Chinese EV manufacturers are open to forming joint ventures and establishing production facilities overseas. However, these decisions are not entirely in the hands of the manufacturers; to a large extent, they remain under the control of the Chinese government, and the vitriolic tone could return overnight.
The average price of a pure-electric car in China is $27,400 (€26,300)
Meanwhile: China’s Car Imports from EU Plunge $10 Billion in Two Years
In 2024, China’s car imports from Germany are projected to drop by 29%, while imports from the Bratislava hub will decline by 23%. Together, Germany and Slovakia account for 83% of China’s car imports from the EU. Austria is the only EU member state bucking the downward trend, with exports to China growing by 9%, representing 8% of the EU’s total car exports to China. However, Austria’s exports of large engine displacement cars face potential risks, as they may be targeted by China’s retaliatory tariffs.
Meanwhile: China Increases Hybrid Car Exports to the EU by 74% to Avoid Tariffs but Fails to Offset the Drop in Pure Electric Car Exports
Meanwhile: China extends EU brandy anti-dumping investigation by three months
Undoubtedly awaiting the outcome of the negotiations on minimum prices for China-made electric cars, the Chinese government has extended its 'investigation' into alleged anti-dumping practices in the French cognac industry. This move appears to be nothing more than a retaliatory tool.
Meanwhile: China has broadened its anti-subsidy probe into EU dairy imports
China’s commerce ministry has expanded its investigation into EU dairy products, adding more subsidy programs to the scope of its anti-subsidy inquiry. This move appears to be nothing more than a retaliatory tool.
Meanwhile: China launches safeguard investigation into imported beef
On December 26, China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) announced the launch of a safeguard investigation into imported beef, set to begin on December 27, 2024, following a request from domestic industry associations.
This serves as further evidence of the Dual Circulation strategy, which focuses on maximizing exports and replacing imports wherever feasible. It was put forward in 2020 and later revised by Xi Jinping to prioritize domestic production.
The Impact of China’s Dual Circulation Playbook: EU Imports from China Up 7%, Exports to China Down 7%
The net result for the EU is a daily deficit exceeding €1 billion
EU Winemakers Lose Interest in China as Imports from the EU Plunge to 13-Year Low
China's wine imports are poised to grow for the first time since 2018, following the lifting of the ban on Australian wines. The growth in value will exceed 30%.
However, imports from the EU are set to decline by another 12% in 2024, falling to 2011 levels. EU winemakers seem disinterested in a market where 40% of the imported wine volume consists of bulk wine priced at CIF €0.7 per liter, bottled locally in China.
Overall, wine imports from the EU have dropped by more than half since their peak in 2018. In 2024, French wine imports are expected to fall by 12%, Italian by 10%, while Spanish wines will drop by 25%. Gewürztraminer and similar German wines are on the rise in 2024, with an increase of around 9%.
Russia Eyes Spain’s China-Bound Pork, But Beijing Hesitates on Substitution, Says Former Russian Official
Guancha interviews Dmitry Reva, the former Minister of Agriculture of Sakhalin region.
“We are fully capable of replacing Spain’s exports of 600,000 tons of pork to China. However, at present, China may not be very interested in this option.”
Sign of the Times: Copper Tops China’s Imports from Spain, Dethroning Pork
China’s voracity for copper, coupled with the looming threat of retaliatory tariffs on EU pork, signals a shift in the top two spots of China’s imports from Spain.
China’s Cross-Border E-Commerce Exports to Reach $90 Billion in 2024 as EU Stresses Data Requirements for Each Item in Shipments
Loopholes are abundant, and the flood seems unstoppable. According to China Customs, items exported under simplified procedures amounted to $81 billion from January to November 2024, an increase of $23 billion compared to the same period last year, representing 41% year-on-year growth.
Meanwhile, the EU issues reminders about the mandatory ICS2 regulations.
According to China Customs data, TEMU, Shein, AliExpress, and similar platforms are expected to export approximately $19 billion worth of goods to the EU in 2024, up from $13 billion in 2023.
120,000 Cross-Border E-Commerce Operators by 2024: Online Platforms Now Account for 20% of Chinese International Traders
In 2024, China has 630,000 foreign trade operators. Of these, more than 120,000 are cross-border e-commerce entities, accounting for 20% of the total, supported by over 1,000 cross-border e-commerce industrial parks and China’s 165 cross-border e-commerce pilot zones.
Introducing the True Star of China’s Exports in 2024: One-Third of Global Vessel Exports
China’s Coal Mining and Imports Hit All-Time Highs for 9 Consecutive Years
Record-breaking mining and imports have driven a 9-year streak, with a 5% annual growth rate. To grasp the sheer scale of production, consider this:
it’s equivalent to loading 6 standard coal trucks every second.
NVIDIA’s Hopper Outpaces China’s Chips
In ballpark figures, to match NVIDIA’s Hopper revenue in one month, all China requires about 68 days’ worth of exports from its current portfolio of processor chips of all sorts.
Xi-Putin 'Unlimited Friendship' Expands to Uranium
Russia's state-owned Rosatom is selling stakes in its uranium mining operations in Kazakhstan to the Chinese state-owned SNPTC.
Russia remains heavily dependent on its energy resources, which are the backbone of its economy, but it faces severe restrictions under the current sanctions regime. Xi steps in to offer support, further deepening Russia's economic reliance on China.
Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, China has significantly increased its exports of enriched uranium, tripling its shipments—an increase that has raised eyebrows among Western countries.
BONUS: China’s GDP 2024*
China’s GDP for 2024 is set to be released in approximately three weeks. As always, we’re sharing our predictions in advance for both the final quarter and the full year.
Q4: 36.2 trillion yuan
2024: 131.18 trillion yuan
In nominal terms, China’s economy grows by 4.1%. Based on our estimate, the Chinese government is likely to report a 0.7% decrease in the overall price level, which would result in a 4.8% growth in real terms.
Achieving a $1,000 increase in GDP per capita requires nominal GDP growth of approximately 8% for China, 2.5% for the EU, and 1.3% for the U.S.